Best bets for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
PGA Tour golf is back and is coming off of another tight tournament at the RBC Heritage that saw Webb Simpson emerge as the champion.
ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman's faith in Simpson paid off last week at Harbour Town. After picking him at Colonial the week before, he stuck to his guns and had Simpson to win at 25-1 and +200 to finish in the top 20.
Now, the Tour heads to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship
Which players are good bets?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian, Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets for the Travelers.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Justin Thomas (13-1); top-10 (+120 at DraftKings)
Bearman: It's never sexy to pick one of the co-favorites, but there are usually good reasons for being listed as one, and you still have to pick one winner out of 154. TPC River Highlands is a scoring course, more forgiving than Colonial or Harbour Town, so if you hit it deep, give up some accuracy and scramble to the greens, you have a good shot. That makes strokes gained: tee-to-green as important as any stat, and Thomas is third on tour. He is also third in scoring on par-4s, which make up two-thirds of the holes in Cromwell. Thomas was 18 under over the past three rounds in South Carolina, even better than winner Webb Simpson. The week before at Colonial, he was 12 under through 54 holes and one back before a final-round 71. That's six rounds at 68 or better and two rounds 1 over, both of which cost him a legit shot at winning. He's playing as well as anyone and finished T-3 here in 2016. Caesars' 13-1 price is one of the best ones out there as I have seen Thomas as low as 10-1.
Fallica: Thomas could very easily have won each of the past two events with a putt here or there. A final-round 71 at Colonial after opening 64-68-66. An opening round 72 before a 66-66-63 finish at Harbour Town. It's a bit strange that since the final-round 62 in 2016, he has gone **, T-56 and T-36 here with six of the 10 rounds in the 70s. He's going to put everything together for four rounds one of these weeks, and I want to be on him when he does.
Bryson DeChambeau (13-1); top-10 (+163 at DK)
Fallica: Sometimes you just have to accept the obvious and take whatever you can get. There's a very strong case to be made DeChambeau is the best player on tour right now. He hasn't been worse than eighth in any event since Phoenix the first week of February, and his driving ability should allow him to crush a course in which his past eight rounds are 68-70-64-68-66-66-68-68. Looks like a pretty safe bet in the top 10 and 20 markets, and even to win as one of the favorites in the event.
Patrick Cantlay (26-1); +150 top-20
Bearman: Looking for someone in the midrange price zone like Simpson, I like Cantlay in this spot. He is one of the few to skip the first two events back (recovering from March surgery to correct a deviated septum), so rust could be a concern, but he also won't be as tired as those who have gone from Texas to South Carolina to Connecticut after 90 days off. Not playing worked out fine for Tyrell Hatton last week. Cantlay has back-to-back T-15s at River Highlands and is sixth on tour in the strokes gained: tee-to-green metric. He is also sixth SG: approach and eighth in strokes gained overall. In his three events prior to the pandemic while battling the septum issues, he finished fourth, T-11th and T-17th. For those who want to dial up the wayback machine, he set the course record with a 60 in 2011 at age 19. At 26-1 (and as high as 30-1 at some books), he's worth a shot to win, and I'm taking him at +150 to finish in the top 20 the way he has the past two times.
Xander Schauffele (28-1)
Kezirian: He is a great ball-striker, and that's what is necessary at this Pete Dye course. Schauffele missed the cut last week, but these shorter courses (this is the second-shortest course this season) play to his strengths, and we all know how close he came two weeks ago, missing out on a playoff thanks to a lipped putt on No. 17. His best putting stats come on poa annua grass, so I think 28-1 is enough for me to bite.
Paul Casey (33-1); top-5 (+900 at DK), top-10 (+400 at DK)
Bearman: No one has a better scoring average (68.1) at TPC River Highlands over the past five years than Casey. Four top 5s, including runner-up finishes in 2015 and 2018, as well as a T-17 in 2016 have earned Casey $1.7 million here in the past five years, second to three-time winner Bubba Watson. With 17 of 20 rounds under par during that span, Casey has done everything but hoist a trophy. If you aren't sold on a win since he hasn't teed it up since Mexico in February, another top-5 will pay +900, while a top-10 earns you four times your money.
Marc Leishman (50-1); top-20 (+200 at DK)
Bearman: There weren't many golfers playing better than Leishman before the coronavirus pandemic, as he had a win at the Farmers Insurance and a runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to go along with a third-place finish last fall at the Safeway Open. Leishman missed the cut in the tour's return at Colonial as three crooked numbers did him in. He shot a 69 on Thursday despite a double bogey and triple bogey on the scorecard thanks to seven birdies. He's 16th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, second on tour in SG: approach and won at River Highlands in 2012. He has had three top-20s and a T-21 since, and is running +200 for another top-20 this week.
Long shots
Viktor Hovland (60-1); +550 top-10, +250 top-20
Fallica: This is the one long price I'm willing to take a shot with this week in the win market, as well as the top-10 and top-20 markets. Last year, this was Hovland's first event as a pro after a T-12 at Pebble Beach in the U.S. Open. It turned out to be a little too much too soon that week for Hovland. But then he would finish the year with four top-16s. He won in Puerto Rico this year but maybe hasn't reached the consistent heights many thought he might this year because of a couple of bad opening rounds. He could be forgotten by some this week because of the successes of Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer and some other young players. And that will make the price appealing.
Brian Harman (65-1)
Bearman: Harman has had a solid restart to the season with all eight rounds par or better and two really bad holes from potential top-10 finishes. Quietly, he had 12 birdies and an eagle and two bogeys over his final 36 holes during the weekend at Harbour Town. His stats won't blow you away, but he is 18th on tour in scrambling, which was a stat that worked for 2019 winner Chez Reavie, plus he has played very well at River Highlands with top-10 finishes each of the past two years and a third-place finish in 2016.
Max Homa (125-1)
Kezirian: This is a long shot, so there are plenty of stats to illustrate why he will not win. But he gained three strokes off the tee last week and 6.2 on approach shots. In fact, he has gained tee-to-green in seven straight starts. He also historically putts better on poa greens. I like rooting for him because I think he will cash sooner than later, so let's hope it's this weekend.
Si Woo Kim (350-1)
Kezirian: This is another ridiculous payout for a gut feel. He has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. That includes cashing as a 500-1 long shot at The Players and finishing second at the Heritage in 2018. He also has played well in three starts at this course. On top of that, he has a knack for coming out of nowhere. His last top-5 finish came after five straight missed cuts. And while he has missed eight of his past nine cuts, he still managed to sit tied for second at The Players after the first round before the coronavirus pandemic canceled the rest of the tournament. So, sure, why not grab 350-1 and maybe even have some fun with top-20 finish payouts.
Prop bets
Tournament: Niemann (-105) over Patrick Reed
Marks: Niemann looked great last week at Harbour Town, especially with his putting and approach shots, finishing T-5. He is is dialed in.
Tournament: Joel Dahmen (-120 at DK) over Lucas Glover
Fallica: Dahmen hasn't posted a finish better than T-43rd here, but he comes in off some of his best play in his career, finishing fifth at Bay Hill and the Genesis. He also shot a 63 at Harbour Town and finished top-20 at Colonial. On the other hand, this is a place where Glover hasn't played well since his career year of 2009 when he won the U.S. Open and finished fifth in the PGA. The past six times he has played here resulted in five missed cuts and a T-47 finish.
Tournament: Leishman (+110) over Sergio Garcia
Bearman: I mentioned earlier why I like Leishman at this course. He has consistently played well here, making the cut in all but one appearance and finishing T-21 or better five times. Garcia played great last week, finishing fifth and displaying a strong iron game. But I've played TPC River Highlands more times than Garcia over the past four years, so I am taking a former champ with the price.
Tournament: Ancer (+130) over Dustin Johnson
Marks: A bridesmaid last week at Heritage. Ancer's ability to scramble and score consistency on par-4s will keep him near the top of the leaderboard. Meanwhile, Johnson hasn't played TPC River Highlands in over five years.
Cantlay to finish in top 20 (+138 at DK)
Fallica: Cantlay hasn't finished out of the top 20 in 2020, and I wouldn't expect him to do so in his first start since the tour returned at a place he has posted a pair of T-15 finishes each of the past two years and shot a 60 as an amateur in 2011.
Watson to finish in top 20 (+163 at DK)
Fallica: Watson has three wins and six top-10s in 13 trips to River Highlands, and you can get him in the area of 30-1 to win a fourth time in Cromwell this week. It almost seems too good to be true off that final-round 65 at Harbour Town. Watson's shot-shaping ability and lack of punishment for missing the fairway just seems to make him a good fit here. Again, I can see his price coming down some and maybe you could take north of 30-1 or so if you can find it, but I'm more on board with a solid week and taking a positive return on my money here with a top-20 finish.
Casey to finish in top 20 (+175 at DK)
Fallica: This just seems like an auto-play, even though Casey hasn't played either of the past two weeks. Casey has played the Travelers five times and has five top-20s, four top-10s and a pair of runner-up finishes. Many will be enamored to play him to win, but I will not. I'll simply play him to finish in the top 20 here off the bench and take +175.
Niemann to finish in top 20 (+200 at DK)
Fallica: Niemann posted four rounds in the 60s here last year en route to a fifth-place finish and was right in the mix last week after a 63-65 weekend. He has five straight rounds in the 60s since the final round at the Charles Schwab, and I think a lot of people are going to take a shot with him in the win market. He could win, but with nine of the top 10 and 33 of the top 50 players in the world here, that might be asking a bit much at reduced odds from the open. He could win, but I'll lessen the risk and take 2-to-1 odds on the 21-year-old to finish in the top 20.
Johnson to miss cut (+250 at DK)
Fallica: DJ played well last week on a course with which the South Carolina native is quite familiar, but I think he's worth a little swing to miss the cut -- like he did at Colonial -- at +250. He has struggled with his short game for most of this year, and he's 77th in SG total. He has also played only here once in the past 10 years, so maybe he'll put together another solid week on the heels of last week, but I think there are reasons to believe he could be headed home prior to the weekend.
DeChambeau to finish in the top 5 (+300 at DK)
Marks: TPC River Highlands is all about driving distance, a perfect fit for the new and improved DeChambeau. He checks all the boxes to win at the Travelers; top 10 in driving distance, par-4 scoring, scrambling and strokes gained tee to green. Others I like to finish in the top 5: Thomas (+250 at DK) and Watson (+700 at DK).
Casey to finish in the top 10 (+400 at DK)
Marks: TPC River Highlands has always done Casey well. He has four top-5 finishes in his five starts here. If it weren't for his scrambling and putting issues, Casey would be a past winner. Bank on a top-10 finish this week. Others I like to finish in the top 10: Justin Rose (+250 at DK) and Schauffele (+255 at DK).
Doc Redman to finish in the top 20 (+750 at DK)
Marks: I expect Doc to pick up where he left off at the RBC Heritage, where he was top-10 in strokes gained: tee to green and displayed ball-striking. Redman also putts well on bentgrass/poa annua. Others I like for the top 20: defending champ Chez Reavie (+550 at DK) and Max Homa (+500 at DK).
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
PGA Tour golf is back and is coming off of another tight tournament at the RBC Heritage that saw Webb Simpson emerge as the champion.
ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman's faith in Simpson paid off last week at Harbour Town. After picking him at Colonial the week before, he stuck to his guns and had Simpson to win at 25-1 and +200 to finish in the top 20.
Now, the Tour heads to TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship
Which players are good bets?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian, Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets for the Travelers.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Justin Thomas (13-1); top-10 (+120 at DraftKings)
Bearman: It's never sexy to pick one of the co-favorites, but there are usually good reasons for being listed as one, and you still have to pick one winner out of 154. TPC River Highlands is a scoring course, more forgiving than Colonial or Harbour Town, so if you hit it deep, give up some accuracy and scramble to the greens, you have a good shot. That makes strokes gained: tee-to-green as important as any stat, and Thomas is third on tour. He is also third in scoring on par-4s, which make up two-thirds of the holes in Cromwell. Thomas was 18 under over the past three rounds in South Carolina, even better than winner Webb Simpson. The week before at Colonial, he was 12 under through 54 holes and one back before a final-round 71. That's six rounds at 68 or better and two rounds 1 over, both of which cost him a legit shot at winning. He's playing as well as anyone and finished T-3 here in 2016. Caesars' 13-1 price is one of the best ones out there as I have seen Thomas as low as 10-1.
Fallica: Thomas could very easily have won each of the past two events with a putt here or there. A final-round 71 at Colonial after opening 64-68-66. An opening round 72 before a 66-66-63 finish at Harbour Town. It's a bit strange that since the final-round 62 in 2016, he has gone **, T-56 and T-36 here with six of the 10 rounds in the 70s. He's going to put everything together for four rounds one of these weeks, and I want to be on him when he does.
Bryson DeChambeau (13-1); top-10 (+163 at DK)
Fallica: Sometimes you just have to accept the obvious and take whatever you can get. There's a very strong case to be made DeChambeau is the best player on tour right now. He hasn't been worse than eighth in any event since Phoenix the first week of February, and his driving ability should allow him to crush a course in which his past eight rounds are 68-70-64-68-66-66-68-68. Looks like a pretty safe bet in the top 10 and 20 markets, and even to win as one of the favorites in the event.
Patrick Cantlay (26-1); +150 top-20
Bearman: Looking for someone in the midrange price zone like Simpson, I like Cantlay in this spot. He is one of the few to skip the first two events back (recovering from March surgery to correct a deviated septum), so rust could be a concern, but he also won't be as tired as those who have gone from Texas to South Carolina to Connecticut after 90 days off. Not playing worked out fine for Tyrell Hatton last week. Cantlay has back-to-back T-15s at River Highlands and is sixth on tour in the strokes gained: tee-to-green metric. He is also sixth SG: approach and eighth in strokes gained overall. In his three events prior to the pandemic while battling the septum issues, he finished fourth, T-11th and T-17th. For those who want to dial up the wayback machine, he set the course record with a 60 in 2011 at age 19. At 26-1 (and as high as 30-1 at some books), he's worth a shot to win, and I'm taking him at +150 to finish in the top 20 the way he has the past two times.
Xander Schauffele (28-1)
Kezirian: He is a great ball-striker, and that's what is necessary at this Pete Dye course. Schauffele missed the cut last week, but these shorter courses (this is the second-shortest course this season) play to his strengths, and we all know how close he came two weeks ago, missing out on a playoff thanks to a lipped putt on No. 17. His best putting stats come on poa annua grass, so I think 28-1 is enough for me to bite.
Paul Casey (33-1); top-5 (+900 at DK), top-10 (+400 at DK)
Bearman: No one has a better scoring average (68.1) at TPC River Highlands over the past five years than Casey. Four top 5s, including runner-up finishes in 2015 and 2018, as well as a T-17 in 2016 have earned Casey $1.7 million here in the past five years, second to three-time winner Bubba Watson. With 17 of 20 rounds under par during that span, Casey has done everything but hoist a trophy. If you aren't sold on a win since he hasn't teed it up since Mexico in February, another top-5 will pay +900, while a top-10 earns you four times your money.
Marc Leishman (50-1); top-20 (+200 at DK)
Bearman: There weren't many golfers playing better than Leishman before the coronavirus pandemic, as he had a win at the Farmers Insurance and a runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to go along with a third-place finish last fall at the Safeway Open. Leishman missed the cut in the tour's return at Colonial as three crooked numbers did him in. He shot a 69 on Thursday despite a double bogey and triple bogey on the scorecard thanks to seven birdies. He's 16th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, second on tour in SG: approach and won at River Highlands in 2012. He has had three top-20s and a T-21 since, and is running +200 for another top-20 this week.
Long shots
Viktor Hovland (60-1); +550 top-10, +250 top-20
Fallica: This is the one long price I'm willing to take a shot with this week in the win market, as well as the top-10 and top-20 markets. Last year, this was Hovland's first event as a pro after a T-12 at Pebble Beach in the U.S. Open. It turned out to be a little too much too soon that week for Hovland. But then he would finish the year with four top-16s. He won in Puerto Rico this year but maybe hasn't reached the consistent heights many thought he might this year because of a couple of bad opening rounds. He could be forgotten by some this week because of the successes of Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer and some other young players. And that will make the price appealing.
Brian Harman (65-1)
Bearman: Harman has had a solid restart to the season with all eight rounds par or better and two really bad holes from potential top-10 finishes. Quietly, he had 12 birdies and an eagle and two bogeys over his final 36 holes during the weekend at Harbour Town. His stats won't blow you away, but he is 18th on tour in scrambling, which was a stat that worked for 2019 winner Chez Reavie, plus he has played very well at River Highlands with top-10 finishes each of the past two years and a third-place finish in 2016.
Max Homa (125-1)
Kezirian: This is a long shot, so there are plenty of stats to illustrate why he will not win. But he gained three strokes off the tee last week and 6.2 on approach shots. In fact, he has gained tee-to-green in seven straight starts. He also historically putts better on poa greens. I like rooting for him because I think he will cash sooner than later, so let's hope it's this weekend.
Si Woo Kim (350-1)
Kezirian: This is another ridiculous payout for a gut feel. He has been a Pete Dye specialist throughout his career. That includes cashing as a 500-1 long shot at The Players and finishing second at the Heritage in 2018. He also has played well in three starts at this course. On top of that, he has a knack for coming out of nowhere. His last top-5 finish came after five straight missed cuts. And while he has missed eight of his past nine cuts, he still managed to sit tied for second at The Players after the first round before the coronavirus pandemic canceled the rest of the tournament. So, sure, why not grab 350-1 and maybe even have some fun with top-20 finish payouts.
Prop bets
Tournament: Niemann (-105) over Patrick Reed
Marks: Niemann looked great last week at Harbour Town, especially with his putting and approach shots, finishing T-5. He is is dialed in.
Tournament: Joel Dahmen (-120 at DK) over Lucas Glover
Fallica: Dahmen hasn't posted a finish better than T-43rd here, but he comes in off some of his best play in his career, finishing fifth at Bay Hill and the Genesis. He also shot a 63 at Harbour Town and finished top-20 at Colonial. On the other hand, this is a place where Glover hasn't played well since his career year of 2009 when he won the U.S. Open and finished fifth in the PGA. The past six times he has played here resulted in five missed cuts and a T-47 finish.
Tournament: Leishman (+110) over Sergio Garcia
Bearman: I mentioned earlier why I like Leishman at this course. He has consistently played well here, making the cut in all but one appearance and finishing T-21 or better five times. Garcia played great last week, finishing fifth and displaying a strong iron game. But I've played TPC River Highlands more times than Garcia over the past four years, so I am taking a former champ with the price.
Tournament: Ancer (+130) over Dustin Johnson
Marks: A bridesmaid last week at Heritage. Ancer's ability to scramble and score consistency on par-4s will keep him near the top of the leaderboard. Meanwhile, Johnson hasn't played TPC River Highlands in over five years.
Cantlay to finish in top 20 (+138 at DK)
Fallica: Cantlay hasn't finished out of the top 20 in 2020, and I wouldn't expect him to do so in his first start since the tour returned at a place he has posted a pair of T-15 finishes each of the past two years and shot a 60 as an amateur in 2011.
Watson to finish in top 20 (+163 at DK)
Fallica: Watson has three wins and six top-10s in 13 trips to River Highlands, and you can get him in the area of 30-1 to win a fourth time in Cromwell this week. It almost seems too good to be true off that final-round 65 at Harbour Town. Watson's shot-shaping ability and lack of punishment for missing the fairway just seems to make him a good fit here. Again, I can see his price coming down some and maybe you could take north of 30-1 or so if you can find it, but I'm more on board with a solid week and taking a positive return on my money here with a top-20 finish.
Casey to finish in top 20 (+175 at DK)
Fallica: This just seems like an auto-play, even though Casey hasn't played either of the past two weeks. Casey has played the Travelers five times and has five top-20s, four top-10s and a pair of runner-up finishes. Many will be enamored to play him to win, but I will not. I'll simply play him to finish in the top 20 here off the bench and take +175.
Niemann to finish in top 20 (+200 at DK)
Fallica: Niemann posted four rounds in the 60s here last year en route to a fifth-place finish and was right in the mix last week after a 63-65 weekend. He has five straight rounds in the 60s since the final round at the Charles Schwab, and I think a lot of people are going to take a shot with him in the win market. He could win, but with nine of the top 10 and 33 of the top 50 players in the world here, that might be asking a bit much at reduced odds from the open. He could win, but I'll lessen the risk and take 2-to-1 odds on the 21-year-old to finish in the top 20.
Johnson to miss cut (+250 at DK)
Fallica: DJ played well last week on a course with which the South Carolina native is quite familiar, but I think he's worth a little swing to miss the cut -- like he did at Colonial -- at +250. He has struggled with his short game for most of this year, and he's 77th in SG total. He has also played only here once in the past 10 years, so maybe he'll put together another solid week on the heels of last week, but I think there are reasons to believe he could be headed home prior to the weekend.
DeChambeau to finish in the top 5 (+300 at DK)
Marks: TPC River Highlands is all about driving distance, a perfect fit for the new and improved DeChambeau. He checks all the boxes to win at the Travelers; top 10 in driving distance, par-4 scoring, scrambling and strokes gained tee to green. Others I like to finish in the top 5: Thomas (+250 at DK) and Watson (+700 at DK).
Casey to finish in the top 10 (+400 at DK)
Marks: TPC River Highlands has always done Casey well. He has four top-5 finishes in his five starts here. If it weren't for his scrambling and putting issues, Casey would be a past winner. Bank on a top-10 finish this week. Others I like to finish in the top 10: Justin Rose (+250 at DK) and Schauffele (+255 at DK).
Doc Redman to finish in the top 20 (+750 at DK)
Marks: I expect Doc to pick up where he left off at the RBC Heritage, where he was top-10 in strokes gained: tee to green and displayed ball-striking. Redman also putts well on bentgrass/poa annua. Others I like for the top 20: defending champ Chez Reavie (+550 at DK) and Max Homa (+500 at DK).
